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Despite the government shutdown preventing official employment data release, alternative indicators like ADP reports, jobless claims, and Indeed postings point to a labor market in delicate balance with minimal hiring or firing.

What caught our eyes this week

Seeing through the fog

It was supposed to be jobs week! With the government shutdown on track to be the longest on record, we likely won’t get employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The next best will be Wednesday’s ADP employment report, which has been thrust into blue chip status with the lights off at the BLS. ADP also recently rolled out a new weekly report that shows job growth back in positive territory through October 11, averaging 14,250 new jobs per week over the prior four weeks. For layoffs, we can use state-reported initial jobless claims to estimate that national initial claims are likely still in the 220,000–235,000 range, despite some high-profile announcements from companies like Amazon and UPS. As for job openings, we can look at Indeed job postings, which continue to creep down to a level more in line with pre-COVID trends. Put together, it’s likely more of the same: a delicate balance of no hiring and no firing, with perhaps some slight improvement on the hiring side—but probably too soon to tell.

ADP Weekly Change in Employment: Four-Week Moving Average (Thousands)

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners, ADP weekly NER Pulse, as of 10/28/2025

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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