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Key Takeaways & Insights

For the first time in 12 years, the yield curve has inverted. A sign of a looming recession? Not in our opinion, according to Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace.


  • The full curve from the overnight federal funds rate (2.38%) to the 30-year Treasury (2.88%) is still comfortably positive.
  • An inversion usually occurs when the Federal Reserve is at the end of its rate tightening cycle.
  • Bond investors in these markets have been flocking to the relatively high yield U.S. Treasury market helping to drive yields down.

Meet the Author

Ben Pace

Partner & Chief Investment Officer

Ben is the Chief Investment Officer and a Partner in the New York office. He leads the firm’s Investment Committee and is a member of the Executive Committee. He has more than thirty-five years of experience in investment management. Ben has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, and is a frequent commentator on Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox TV and CNBC, appearing regularly on network programs such as Power Lunch, The Closing Bell, Squawk Box, and Worldwide Exchange.

Prior to joining Cerity Partners, Ben was Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Investment Solutions for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in the U.S. In his role as CIO, he sat on the PWM Global Investment Committee, providing input on the U.S. economy and capital markets. He oversaw the investment strategy and asset allocation for PWM clients in the U.S. As Head of Global Investment Solutions, he brought together PWM’s capital markets and investment capabilities in an effort to provide an effective and consistent experience for clients. Prior to joining Deutsche Bank in 1994, he managed equity income funds for two investment organizations. During his tenure with those institutions, he also served as a securities analyst with a particular emphasis on the financial services and healthcare industries.

He earned his Bachelor of Arts in economics from Columbia University and Master of Business Administration in finance from New York University.

Connect with Ben

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