Cerity Partners + Fidelity

May 18, 2026 —

The 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 4.5%, rising inflation driven by the Iran conflict’s disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, and growing expectations of a Fed rate hike all reflect how the stagflation shock from this geopolitical crisis is rippling through the global economy.

May 11, 2026 —

The April jobs report showed steady unemployment at 4.3% and solid payroll growth, suggesting the labor market is stabilizing toward more hiring, which gives the Federal Reserve little urgency to adjust rates as it monitors inflation risks from the Iran war.

May 6, 2026 —

In his May outlook, Partner and Chief Market Strategist Jim Lebenthal discusses the healthy skepticism he’s seeing regarding equity markets at all-time highs. He also explains how strong earnings growth expectations support the markets and his belief that global energy dependence on the Persian Gulf will diminish over the coming years.

May 5, 2026 —

Join our Investment Office for a review of the key market trends we witnessed in the first quarter and our outlook for what may lie ahead for the remainder of the year. This quarter’s market update explores the impact of AI on the economy, the conflict in the Middle East and broader geopolitical tensions, and the evolving discussion around private credit.

May 4, 2026 —

AI infrastructure investment has emerged as a key driver of broader economic growth, with capital expenditures up 10% in the first quarter of 2026 and accounting for over two-thirds of real GDP growth, largely fueled by hyperscalers racing to meet surging compute demand.

April 27, 2026 —

Strong March retail data, bolstered by low unemployment and tax refunds, suggests US consumers are absorbing the energy price shock from the Iran war without significantly pulling back on broader spending.

April 21, 2026 —

Without the high costs of raising children, DINK couples have more disposable income to spend on discretionary items, travel, and hobbies. As a result, financial planning must reflect their needs and, in some cases, provide creative solutions.

April 20, 2026 —

Despite conflicting reports on the Strait of Hormuz’s status, its effective closure is disrupting global energy flows, driving up demand for US oil exports and pushing domestic energy prices higher.

April 13, 2026 —

Surging gas prices drove a hot CPI print, and while the downstream economic impacts of inflation—from shipping to airfare—are mounting, offsetting factors like strong employment and higher tax refunds may help cushion consumers.

April 6, 2026 —

The Iran conflict has upended a relatively stable start to 2026, triggering energy-driven inflation, financial market volatility, and a more cautious stance from central banks. As higher commodity prices ripple through the global economy, growth expectations have softened, policy flexibility has narrowed, and asset performance—from equities to bonds and currencies—remains highly sensitive to prolonged geopolitical instability.