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Key Takeaways & Insights

Positive earnings growth, coupled with low interest rates, may help sustain the bull market through year-end and into 2020.

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  • The U.S. economy is slowing, but the current growth rate remains comfortably above any near-term recessionary lines thanks to steady consumer spending and a resilient housing market.
  • The 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut at the end of October should be the last one for this year, and possibly this economic cycle. Relatively strong GDP growth and the resolution of the inverted yield curve have given the Fed a little more breathing room.
  • The U.S. Treasury yield curve, while still flat, is no longer inverted as the Fed’s 0.75% (75 basis points) rate cut this year has effectively met market expectations, and the economy hasn’t deteriorated to recessionary levels. We expect the curve to steepen from here, with the ten-year approaching, and perhaps slightly exceeding, 2.0% next year.

Meet the Author

Ben Pace

Partner & Chief Investment Officer

Ben is the Chief Investment Officer and a Partner in the New York office. He leads the firm’s Investment Committee and is a member of the Executive Committee. He has more than thirty years of experience in investment management. Ben has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, and is a frequent commentator on Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox TV and CNBC, appearing regularly on network programs such as Power Lunch, The Closing Bell, Squawk Box, and Worldwide Exchange.

Prior to joining Cerity Partners, Ben was Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Investment Solutions for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in the U.S. In his role as CIO, he sat on the PWM Global Investment Committee, providing input on the U.S. economy and capital markets. He oversaw the investment strategy and asset allocation for PWM clients in the U.S. As Head of Global Investment Solutions, he brought together PWM’s capital markets and investment capabilities in an effort to provide an effective and consistent experience for clients. Prior to joining Deutsche Bank in 1994, he managed equity income funds for two investment organizations. During his tenure with those institutions, he also served as a securities analyst with a particular emphasis on the financial services and healthcare industries.

He earned his Bachelor of Arts in economics from Columbia University and Masters of Business Administration in finance from New York University.

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