The outcomes of the 2024 election are in. For some, the results are tectonic. For others, they are a validation. Many are just happy that the election is over. However, in this Insight, we concern ourselves solely with the markets: equities, fixed income, currencies, private investments, and so on. From this vantage point, it is advantageous that the results have been made known both quickly and clearly. That was not expected as of just yesterday.

As we write, futures and pre-market stock indications reflect higher equity prices and lower bond prices. These developments make sense in the context of a unified Republican government. While it is still conjecture, policies to come in 2025 are likely to be pro-growth: lower taxes and lighter regulations. They are also likely to promote higher inflation, both through that growth and through higher tariffs. With higher inflation will likely come higher interest rates.

There is meaningful legislative work in the year ahead. The debt ceiling looms at year-end, and the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act necessitates challenging work to craft an extension that damages neither the economy nor the creditworthiness of the U.S. Treasury market.

Our best advice on this, the “Day After,” is to take a deep breath and refrain from sharp portfolio moves. Many investors will want to emigrate from the markets. In 2016, that was the wrong move. However, it is equally likely that the markets’ first direction after an election will be driven more by emotions than fundamentals. Much information will be available in the the coming weeks from which we can glean a prudent approach: cabinet appointments, policy positions, international responses, etc. It is always better to let the dust settle and make thoughtful portfolio moves than to respond in the heat of the moment. That applies both to strategic positioning and tactical tilts.

We will be conducting a webinar next Tuesday, November 12th, to digest the investment, tax, and trust and estate implications of the election outcome. That date was chosen purposely to allow time for more information to arrive. You are welcome to attend and can register here. In the meantime, the Investment Office is diligently analyzing the results of this election. More thoughts will follow in the coming days. In the meantime, our specialists are here to support you and provide guidance to help keep your financial plans on track.

The Cerity Partners Investment Office

Cerity Partners does not endorse or favor any political candidate, party, or policy position. Any references to candidates or policies in this document are for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an endorsement. Cerity Partners remains committed to providing unbiased, independent financial advice to all clients, regardless of political developments.

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

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