Download this week’s full edition!

The 43-day government shutdown temporarily reduced Q4 2025 GDP by 1.5%, but federal operations have resumed and most economic impact will be recovered in Q1 2026.

What caught our eyes this week

Back in business!

After 43 days, the longest government shutdown on record is finally over. Federal employees are back in the office and receiving backdated paychecks. SNAP benefits are flowing again to the 42 million Americans who rely on them. Airports are resuming normal operations just in time for Thanksgiving travel. Most of the economic impact of the shutdown will be delayed rather than permanently lost. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that annualized gross domestic product was reduced by 1.5% in Q4 2025, which will be made up for with a 2.2% increase in Q1 2026. Regarding economic data, we will get the outstanding jobs report for September on Thursday. As for October data, we should eventually get a nonfarm payroll figure, but not an unemployment rate due to manual survey methodologies that are difficult to perform retroactively. The same is likely true for October inflation data. When the Federal Open Market Committee meets in early December, it will have a little more data, but the macro picture remains foggy.

U.S. daily flight cancellations, October 18 to November 16

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners, Flightaware

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Please read important disclosures here.