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Our outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act boosting consumer spending, a likely pause in trade policy tensions ahead of midterm elections, and solid corporate fundamentals despite limited room for further equity valuation expansion.

What caught our eyes this week

Looking ahead

Here are our 10 key market and economic themes for 2026. In general, we see reason for optimism. Monetary policy is marginally looser, but we see bigger macro catalysts coming from fiscal policy. Consumers will start to see the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) during tax season in increased tax refunds and decreased withholdings. This should spur consumption and help broaden economic momentum beyond AI investments that powered us through a few weak patches in 2025. Trade policy will likely be on the back burner as the administration focuses on midterm elections. We acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding future Fed leadership, but we also expect the 12 voting members to remain balanced when looking at their dual mandate. Equity markets have been on a good run and it’s tough to expect more from valuation expansion; on the other hand, fundamentals look solid for an increasing share of the corporate sector.

Our 10 key themes for 2026

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners

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