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President Trump walked back his ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty remains about the crisis’s resolution, with lasting damage to energy infrastructure already driving fuel rationing in parts of Asia and rising gas prices at home.

What caught our eyes this week

An attempt to de-escalate

Early this morning, we woke up with futures markets pointing to more pain ahead for stocks. Then we got a post from President Trump, backing off his own 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and citing encouraging discussions between the two nations (which Iran continues to deny as of the time of this writing). Will today, March 23, mark the equivalent of April 9, 2025, when Trump reversed course on his tariff policy unveiled a week earlier on Liberation Day? The answer, of course, is that nobody knows. Much of the outcome is still in the hands of the Iranian regime, which can continue its chokehold on the strait with relative ease if it desires. And existing damage to surrounding energy infrastructure will take months, if not years, to fully repair. This reality is starting to set in for economies that rely heavily on the region for energy imports, with fuel rationing already taking place in some Asian countries. Back home, with a repeat of the gas lines of the 1970s unlikely, we’re focused on how consumer behavior changes given the sticker shock at the pump (which is unlikely to fully retrace soon, presidential tweets notwithstanding).

Graph showing the price of Brent Crude Oil as of the morning of Monday, March 23

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners, Brent Crude Oil (IFEU $/bbl) Continuous, FactSet, as of the morning of 3/23/2026.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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