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After the government shutdown disrupted data releases, upcoming economic reports are expected to show the economy continuing its recent pattern of slow but steady growth with inflation above target but manageable.

What caught our eyes this week

Finally backfilling the macro data

After disruptions from the government shutdown that ended on November 12, we are finally getting back on track with official economic data. This week, we’ll get October payrolls (but not an unemployment rate) along with the November jobs report. We’ll also get October retail sales and November consumer prices (October’s consumer prices report was canceled). As the data spigot gets turned back on, we expect it will confirm a continuation of recent trends: low hiring but also low firing, slower but steady consumer spending, and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target but not out of control. Looking forward to next year, we see some measures in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act helping to reaccelerate spending and hiring as economic growth broadens out. Tariffs should continue putting upward pressure on goods prices, but the impact should be offset by falling shelter inflation as rents continue to cool.

Nonfarm payrolls: Monthly change in thousands

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners, FRED, as of 12/12/2025

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