Video: July 2026 Economic and Market Outlook

In our July outlook, Partner and Chief Market Strategist Jim Lebenthal describes broadly healthy financial conditions, including the S&P 500 up 8% year to date, the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.43%, oil down roughly 35% from April highs amid a US–Iran stability deal, and projected second-quarter GDP growth of 3.0%. The main risk to watch will be how markets test new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh—which could mean a routine equity correction—although we expect no rate hikes this year given that collapsing energy prices should ease inflation.