Download This Week’s Full Edition!

President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board could signal easier monetary policy, though the final direction hinges on committee votes and an undecided Fed chair pick.

What Caught Our Eyes This Week

The Apprentice: Federal Reserve Edition

On Friday, President Donald Trump announced he was nominating Stephen Miran to fill Adriana Kugler’s vacant seat as a Fed Board governor. Kugler, whose term was set to expire in January 2026, said earlier in August she was leaving after missing the July FOMC meeting for personal reasons. Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, has joined Trump as a vocal critic of the Fed’s hawkish stance and downplayed the impact of tariffs on inflation. Trump’s chance to fill another seat on the board, and potentially a fourth if current Fed Chair Jerome Powell steps down when his term ends in May, tilts the scales toward easy policy. Still, monetary policy decisions require a majority vote from the 12-person committee, insulating them from political influence. The takeaway may be that the White House remains undecided on its final pick for Fed chair, as Trump said he will continue searching for a permanent replacement. Odds favor Chris Waller, but speculation often proves futile. For now, even if Miran’s nomination is not approved by the September FOMC meeting, federal funds futures still indicate over a 90% chance of a rate cut after the weak August 5 labor market report.

CHART OF THE WEEK: Source: Cerity Partners, Polymarket, as of 8/8/2025.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Please read important disclosures here.