S&P500

Source: Cerity Partners, FactSet, 6/30/2025

At the halfway point of 2025, where do we stand? Objectively speaking, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen by about 30 basis points. Oil prices are down about 10%. Credit spreads are roughly where they started the year. The S&P 500 is up about 5%, halfway to what could be considered an average year for stocks. Of course, none of this data captures the true experience of 2025, which has brought extreme volatility in markets, economics, and politics (both domestic and foreign.

Trade policy is slowly inching toward a new normal. Tariffs can be viewed as a tax in that they take cash from the private sector (some combination of consumers and businesses) and give it to the government.  President Donald Trump wants to offset these indirect tax hikes with his “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The bill features both stimulus and austerity, but with the stimulus front-loaded in the first few years. In the end, it’s possible that trade and tax policy add up to a net neutral.

While analysts have reined in their expectations for earnings growth, they still see a solid year for corporate America. Downward revisions have mostly been found in trade-sensitive sectors like materials and consumer discretionary. Meanwhile, estimates for technology and communication services—which are more focused on continued massive investment in artificial intelligence—have been resilient.

“Uncertainty” appears to be the word of the year, with big tailwinds clashing against big headwinds. Looking forward, markets appear to be giving a slight nod to the tailwinds. We tend to agree.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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