Download this week’s full edition!

In his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting and press conference, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a firm commitment to price stability and the 2% inflation target, prompting markets to abandon expectations of a 2026 rate cut and instead anticipate possible rate hikes.

What caught our eyes this week

A hawk in dove’s clothing?

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was unambiguous in how he wished to be perceived after his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and press conference last week. This can be best highlighted by the closing sentence of his truncated statement, which he repeated several times: “The committee will deliver price stability.” Warsh spent the bulk of the press conference discussing the price-stability side of the dual mandate, even reciting a common refrain from his career that “inflation is a choice.” It was obvious that he wanted to establish a credible commitment to the Fed’s 2% inflation target and distance himself from the politics that dominated the narrative during President Donald Trump’s search for the next Fed Chair. And the markets got the message. Federal funds futures have now entirely abandoned the notion of a rate cut in 2026 and are debating whether one, two, or three rate hikes are most likely for the four remaining FOMC meetings this year. Markets may or not be right about the eventual path, timing, and magnitude of monetary policy, but their conclusion is clear: This Fed Chair is no dove.

Graph showing federal funds target rate probabilities for the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners, CME FedWatch as of 6/22/2026

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Please read important disclosures here.