Download this week’s full edition!

At the halfway point of 2026, our Investment Office now sees the Iran war’s energy price spike as slowing progress on inflation, finds its views on strong corporate earnings and growing AI investment holding up well, and is waiting to learn whether new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leans hawkish or dovish.

What caught our eyes this week

A midyear reflection

As we approach the midpoint of 2026, the Investment Office took some time to review and revise the key themes we laid out in the beginning of the year. The biggest changes to our themes revolve around inflation and monetary policy. We came into the year expecting inflation to continue down toward the Fed’s target and for a dovish Fed chair to be balanced by a more hawkish committee. Progress on inflation hit yet another speed bump with the war in Iran. Right now, we think the spike in energy prices will delay but not derail that progress. As for monetary policy, it was clear from his first press conference that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh does not wish to be perceived as a dove, at least not initially. As of now, the jury is still out on where Warsh will fall on the hawk–dove continuum. A few other themes for the year are intact, if not stronger: The strength in corporate earnings has only grown more impressive over the year and is now extending beyond the US into international and emerging markets, despite the energy shock. Last, the AI infrastructure build-out continues to gain steam and serve as a key source of structural support for the US economy.

List showing Cerity Partners' 10 updated key themes for 2026

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Please read important disclosures here.