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Through the first half of 2026 the S&P 500 rose another 10%, extending a gain of over 100% since late 2022 that has been driven primarily by strong earnings growth rather than valuation expansion—a trend analysts expect to continue and one that suggests the bull market still has momentum.

What caught our eyes this week

How can this train keep rolling?

If you’ve had the pleasure of seeing Union Pacific’s Big Boy locomotive on its tour of the country, you’ve likely been struck by the powerful momentum exerted by the 1.2-million-pound machine. In the markets, many have been watching the S&P 500 barrel ahead with similar awe. It’s been a bumpy ride, but through the first half of 2026 the index is up another 10%, shaking off concerns about how it could possibly follow one of its best-ever stretches from 2023 to 2025. And while the market is up just over 100% since the end of 2022, much of that can be attributed to growth in earnings, with forward earnings per share up 62% over the same period. The rest of the gains have been powered by expanding valuations, from about 17x at the start of 2023 to 20x today—a modest expansion in our view that is supported by the impressive fundamental strength of the underlying companies in the index. It’s reasonable to question whether we’re nearing the end of the bull market after such a historic run, but the good news is earnings that have been powering stocks don’t appear to be slowing down. After first-quarter earnings-per-share growth north of 20%, analysts expect at least three more behind it. If you keep feeding a bull market solid earnings growth, it’s even harder to stop the train.

Graph showing the S&P 500 index level from 2022 through July 2026

CHART OF THE WEEK: Cerity Partners, FactSet

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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